Friday, October 9, 2015

Process to elect new Speaker of the House in chaos.

By Rob Janicki

With the shocking news that Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has withdrawn from consideration for Speaker of the House, the process for finding a replacement for Speaker John Boehner is in absolute disarray.  John Boehner has postponed any election until such time as one or more creditable candidates rise to the occasion and begin to form a consensus that will lead to a resolution to fill the position of Speaker.

Popular choices within the party are dropping like flies as they bow out of consideration for Speaker and these are some of the most qualified members of the House.

in retrospect, Kevin McCarthy's misstep over his comment on the Benghazi committee certainly played a significant part in his decision to step aside.  McCarthy's misstatement about the Benghazi committee's creation as politically partisan, was no way to start a campaign for theSpeakership.  At least McCarthy had the decency to step aside, since he would be dogged by this misstep forever more, only alienating conservatives even more.

For the present, it would seem that the Republican party has reached a dangerous point of inter party gridlock that will not have a good result that will satisfy anyone in the House. That said, I see a nondescript candidate arise that no one will really like, but that no one will really condemn.  In other words, I see someone coming out of the woodwork and rising to become a "seat warmer" to hold the seat until the November 2016 election reveals whether there is an increase in the number of conservatives.

Should conservatives increase their numbers in the House, the establishment Republicans may well  have to finally face the reality of the conservative presence and make accommodations.  A failure to accommodate conservatives will result in a party patricide by the establishment leadership in the House.

One of the technical problems with the House leadership, as it stands today, is that its members come from pretty solid Republican districts.  Thus the leaders in the House are individually guaranteed of reelection of whether they accommodate conservatives or not.

It's been said before that the way to change the leadership of the House is at the grass roots level by mounting campaigns to elect conservatives in Republican districts or right leaning districts.  The problem in this scenario is time.  America is coming to a critical political mass that may not allow for the time to create a greater conservative presence in the House.  America simply cannot afford another Democrat in the White House.  If the internecine fight continues in the process to elect a Speaker of the House, it may hand the presidential election to the Democrats and America will be forevermore and irreversibly damaged beyond repair.

Hopefully, such a specter will jolt the Republican establishment and conservatives into coming together for the sake of the country and not their individual careers as professional politicians.  The indicator to this possible solution should be seen in the coming weeks when a candidate for Speaker is elected.  Will it be a "seat taker" or a serious consensus candidate that will actually lead a real working Republican coalition to kick start the House legislative process into action. 

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