First, let's be clear. I believe there will only be three candidates of consequence, based upon the numbers now and coming up, that will go into the GOP convention with any hope of winning and they are Trump, Cruz and Rubio. Sorry, Dr. Carson, but your opportunity has probably come and gone with any hope of a successful candidacy, although your presence may still be felt with any delegates you may acquire along the way. I see your delegates going to anyone but Donald Trump, who has managed to come as close to assassinating your character as I have ever seen before in a national political campaign.
Now to burst the bubble of all the Trump supporters out there. I believe that Donald Trump has begun to wear thin on too many of the American electorate to be able to expect an increase in his polling numbers. I believe this will continue to be borne out in the coming months and, more importantly, the primaries through March.
By the end of March I believe that it will be clearly seen that Trump does not have the delegate count necessary to go into the GOP convention and win on the first ballot. Trump's hope has been and will continue to be that he will be able to amass a majority of the delegate count beforehand to make the GOP convention nothing more than a rubber stamp to his nomination. I simply do not see that scenario arising. So where does that leave Trump and the nomination process?
In my opinion, if Trump goes into the GOP convention with a plurality of votes, which is possible, he will not win on the first ballot and that is a crucial condition in the nomination process. After that first ballot, delegates are free to vote their conscience on subsequent ballots and that's where the wheeling, dealing and cajoling of other candidates comes into play as they seek to win over delegates previously committed to Trump and other candidates that may have won a some committed delegates in the various primaries along the way, like Dr. Carson.
So, how does Trump become a solution to the chaos we see in the GOP today? I believe that when Trump goes down, his delegates will split between those remaining firm in their support to Trump and some, realizing the inevitable, voting for the GOP nominee who most closely resembles Trump, who has been characterized as a Washington outsider and what has won him his loyal support.
That said, I really believe believe that Trump's greatest ultimate contribution to this GOP nomination process is that he will have brought in a lot of Reagan Democrats and independents that will stay around to vote for who I believe will be the eventual GOP nominee and that will be Ted Cruz.
Cruz seems to me to be the one candidate that can bridge the gap between Trump and Rubio.
Now, if the GOP establishment can just stay out of the way, the Republican Party has a chance of remaining a viable political party. However, if the GOP establishment seeks to somehow rig the process of choosing the GOP nominee, it will more likely than not, herald the end of the Republican Party for a generation or two, if not permanently.
So, let's celebrate Donald Trump's contribution to changing the Republican party and its relationship with Americans looking for politicians with more concern for everyday people and less concern with advocating for special interests.
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