I, like most on the political right, are concerned about the outcome of the Republican presidential nominating process. Will Trump win the requisite 1237 delegates outright going into the GOP convention in July? If not, will there be a contested convention with candidates already in the running, competing for each others delegates after the first few floor votes? What about a negotiated convention where the RNC comes to the rescue and provides a candidate option outside of those who have been announced candidates? We are looking at three possible outcomes and one outcome could easily come today on Super Tuesday, Part 2.
Let's dispose of the least likely scenario of a brokered convention. Such a scenario coming to fruition would result in the total destruction of the GOP. Other than the RNC, I cannot see any candidate, known or as yet unknown, accepting this authoritarian decision by the RNC. It would be certain self inflicted death for the GOP as a functioning political party. That said, let's move on to the two most likely results we are apt to see.
First, if Trump manages to win in both Ohio and Florida, it may be exponentially more difficult, if not practically impossible for Ted Cruz, the last man standing, to successfully oppose Donald Trump. Trump could conceivably make all this supposition moot, if he hits that magic 1237 delegate count. Game over, as the GOP goes on to lose the general election to Hillary Clinton, as disgusting as that result may be. Despite all the negatives Hillary is hobbled with, Donald Trump has even worse negatives. Trump, among the current cast of presidential wannabes, has the worst polling outcomes against Hillary. It seems voters are more willing to trust a known liar than a liar of unknown proportions in Donald Trump.
This leaves us with the third possibility and that is a negotiated settlement among those candidates that have already acquired delegates along the yellow brick primary road. There seems to be a growing consensus in the RNC that they may have to swallow hard and go with their worst nightmare next to Donald Trump, that being Ted Cruz. For the life of me I cannot understand the complete antipathy of the RNC toward Cruz, other than Cruz will not be manipulated by the RNC and Congressional GOP leadership. Perhaps the RNC has finally come to the understanding that Donald Trump will, in his own perverted way, destroy the GOP, rather than to try and rebuild it if elected.
And that last point is very salient. Trump and his supporters have no intention of repairing and rebuilding the GOP. Their goal, once in office, is to completely deconstruct the GOP and build an entirely new and different political establishment. Trump, and especially his supporters, who are about as delusional as a cult can be, are looking at nothing less than burning down the GOP establishment once and forever and Trump will lead them down that path as long as they are useful to him. Once in office Trump would undoubtedly construct a new RNC in his own vision as an adjunct to Trump's role as an autocratic president.
I find it interesting that Trump supporters really don't care what Trump does or says. Instead, they have, en masse, projected what they believe that Trump will do once in office. It almost makes Obama's "Hope and Change" seem absolutely rational by comparison. What Trump's supporters don't realize is that Trump will not need them anymore, should he somehow overcome the odds and defeat Hillary in the general election on November 8, 2016. This leaves Trump to exercise his own political ends as the authoritarian he really is. Trump, to date, has masterfully persuaded his supporters that he is one of them, despite the fact that he is demonstrably unlike his supporters.
Having said all of the above, the bottom line is that there will be no completely satisfactory outcome for the Republican Party. The RNC and Congressional Republican leadership will, in order to survive to some degree, have to give up quite a bit of power and that will not be easy for a group of people so accustomed to holding tightly to the reins of power within the Republican Party. I expect that there will be a political blood bath at the end of the nomination process. Trump and his followers will not go gently into the night. That's not part of Trump's psychological makeup nor that of his followers. What will result will be akin figuratively to a 19th century lynching with a tall tree and a short rope
By Wednesday we may well have a much clearer picture as to the eventual outcome of the Republican presidential nomination process. Until then, there is no telling what may come up to save or destroy the Republican Party.
No comments:
Post a Comment