99.9% of people voting in the GOP primaries this year have absolutely no idea how the process is set up by the GOP and it definitely is set up by each state GOP, with each making up its own rules.
Let's make this clear at the outset. Primaries are NOT direct democratic elections for the candidate of the voter's choice.
The
voters are electing delegate electors, who, by state GOP rules for each
state, must vote for the winning candidate or some such proportional
candidate for one or more votes on the convention floor. This depends
upon each state's party rules. Candidates who have dropped out can NOT
simply direct those delegates to vote for anyone else. These candidates
that have dropped out can lobby these same delegates for a candidate
that they like, but that is the extent of it. These delegates must vote
for their designated candidate UNTIL their state party rules free them
of such constraints.
After each state GOP rule has been met, these electors are then free to vote their consciences for whoever they choose.
These
delegate electors are party players and activists, who have operated in
their Republican Party apparatus at the local, county or state level.
They are what you would call "establishment" folks and most are likely
to support the candidate that the GOP leadership promotes and suggests
would be in the best interest of the entire Republican Party. The
delegate electors that each state sends to the convention are
essentially party insiders. Trump may believe he has changed how
Republican Party politics are run at the national level, but he has
tried to do that from the outside, when it's still the insiders who can
and will determine the nominee for the Republican Party.
What
this translates to is simple. Should Donald Trump not win the magic
1237 delegates necessary to win the nomination before the convention,
the convention will come down to these delegates voting their
conscience, not the choice of voters across the country and not
withstanding Trump's contention that he has a plurality and fairness
should dictate that he be the nominee. It doesn't work that way and it
won't work for Trump.
These
delegates will vote for the candidate they, and the RNC, feel is the
most electable and NOT the candidate that has the plurality of votes
among the candidates. Sorry Donald. It's not about fairness and it
certainly isn't about having a simple plurality, which is essentially
meaningless.
What
does this portend for Donald Trump? Trump will lose on the second or
third ballot, depending upon how many delegates are committed by their
state rules, to voting for their designated candidate after each
ballot. As more delegates are freed to vote their consciences, or that
of the RNC, Cruz will most likely increase in delegate votes with each
succeeding floor vote, since the RNC seems to have reluctantly embraced
Cruz among the three candidates.
It's
then that all Hell will break loose. Trump supporters will cry foul.
They will claim that they have been robbed by the RNC, but the results
will be due to the rather arcane party rules that everyone knew about,
or should have known about going into the campaign. That may be the
difference between Ted Cruz, an elected politician with electoral
experience and Donald Trump, an amateur playing at being a politician.
Will
Trump try to hastily form a third party effort? Not likely, since time
and state rules weigh heavily against this, plus the cost would be
exorbitant and there wouldn't be enough time to raise money for the
effort and Trump simply won't self fund what he knows would be a losing
result.
So,
that leaves the question of what Trump's cult followers will do. Will
they stay home and refuse to vote for the GOP candidate, spitefully vote
for the Democrat candidate or write in a candidate? The winning GOP
candidate shouldn't depend upon the Trump cult vote. It simply won't be
there. These cultists will rather burn down the GOP than vote for the
GOP candidate as evidenced by their mob like behaviors during the
primaries to date.
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