After the results of two expected presidential debates and one unexpected debate disaster with CNBC, it appears that Fox Business and the Wall Street Journal have figured out it's time to winnow out some of the candidates to get to a much more manageable number, which should result in a more robust confrontation and exposition of political ideas and policy positions. The fourth main event debate and undercard debate is scheduled for next Tuesday, November 10th.
Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee have been dropped from the main event, to join with a reduced undercard of Louisiana Governor, Bobby Jindal and former U. S. Senator, Rick Santorum (PA). Missing altogether from the undercard will be Senator Lindsey Graham of South Caroline and former New York Governor, George Pataki, who have simply failed to meet the debate criteria with their cumulative polling at or below 1%. Jim Gilmore, former governor of Virginia, will continue as a non-participant, conducting his own campaign, albeit such a stealthy campaign, no one has seen it or Jim Gilmore, other than when Jim goes out to pick up the morning paper on his front porch.
Actually this process of reducing the number of candidates on both cards is overdue and will provide participants and viewers a far better opportunity to evaluate the candidates, since more time will be given to each candidate to elaborate with greater specificity and detail on their various policy positions. Telling America how great they are and what they will do to change America will no longer be enough of a response for the candidates. Hopefully the candidates will be pushed to actually let America know where they stand on the issues of the day and exactly how they will go about achieving those noble goals.
Actually, I believe the undercard will demonstrate far better responses from the four candidates involved, since they have honed their political policy positions over many years and have already given specificity to many of their policy positions. The undercard candidates are all seasoned political debaters so watch this debate for real substance and a greater debating style from these four individuals.
In the main event, it is my opinion that some, but not all, in this group that are polling in the lower numbers and following the top two, will actually have an opportunity to eventually improve their polling positions vis a vis the two top contenders. Conversely, I believe that the top two candidates characterized as outsiders, Donald Trump and Dr. Ben Carson, will have their hands full just trying to tread water as moderator questioning becomes much more refined, intense and pointed in eliciting detailed answers on candidate policy positions. I don't think either of these two candidates will be allowed to skate through the debate responding with glowing rhetoric lacking real substance.
In the end, I believe there are two conditions that will eventually separate the candidates. These two conditions will revolve around who has the stronger political messaging achieved through the debates and the financial resources necessary to wage a campaign at the grass roots level over the long haul through the very last primary. Both elements will be necessary to win. Either one or the other alone will not be enough. Even then, this Republican primary season could see the eventual winning candidate selected at the Republican convention after much wheeling and dealing behind the scenes among the few to survive the ordeal.
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