I've taken some flack on my opinion piece on Donald Trump and Sean Hannity. I expect that since my post was an opinion commentary.
What I will write below is not the be all and end all in any conversation on Trump's campaign. Everything I will address has an argument to be made in opposition. I understand that and welcome opposing views. This post will center on Donald Trump and his campaign as I see it now and in the future
Exactly who will vote for Trump in the Republican primary nomination process?
Basically, Trump's supporters are disenchanted white conservatives that are fed up with the GOP establishment and the GOP leaders in Congress. I understand that, since I, too, am disenchanted with these same political people. But I don't operate out of anger, fear or frustration, since those emotions tend to cloud one's thinking. I look to what really can be accomplished, rather than to what my testosterone tries to tell me I should be thinking and doing. That said, here goes.
Trump has already disparaged women in general and couldn't get over whining about how he was treated by Megyn Kelly. Kelly had a strong following of conservative women. I can hardly wait until Trump sits down for an intensive interview with the likes of Rachel Madcow over at MSNBC or her counterpart at CNN. Kelly was doing Trump a favor by asking him some hard-nosed questions. Does Trump think anyone in the MSM is going to pitch him softball questions? Kelly was just preparing him for tougher times ahead with MSM interviewers.
Trump has disparaged Hispanics, which traditionally have voted about 65% Democrat in presidential elections. Why would any Hispanic registered as a Republican, want to vote for someone who has said he will deport Hispanics wholesale, even if they have been born here as the children of illegal immigrants, which is perfectly legal under the Constitution.
Trump can't change the Constitution on his own and the red states aren't about to follow his politically suicidal lead on this issue. That's not how the issue of illegal immigration will be worked out in the long run. And no, I am not a supporter of amnesty. Ronald Reagan tried it and failed. There is absolutely no reason to believe that a different outcome would occur with another similar amnesty situation.
Now, to be fair, Trump's assertion that illegals put poor and minority American citizens at a disadvantage in the labor force is absolutely true and essentially irrefutable. Blacks in particular should oppose, as a significant minority group, all illegal immigration, since it is demonstrably against their economic self interest to look the other way, which their liberal progressive political establishment leaders want them to do with the issue of immigration. Black liberal progressive leaders are actually the enemy of the poor Black class. These Black leaders work in concert with the upper echelon of the white liberal progressive establishment, because they get theirs up front and cast the remaining crumbs to their Black constituents.
In a general election, 88% of blacks vote Democrat, which leaves 12% of blacks that may vote in a Republican primary. Unfortunately, for Trump, that's not a significant number since he may not even garner anything above a single digit in that 12% demographic. Don't forget that Dr. Ben Carson is more likely to get Black Republican votes in the Republican primary, since these people are less ideological and in a higher economic demographic than typical Black Democrat voters. Professional Blacks aren't going to fall for Trump's outrageous populism because if Trump can roll over Hispanics he can roll over Blacks with equal vigor and determination
Contrary to what Donald Trump may say about women, Blacks and Hispanic supporting him, I want to see the polling and I mean solid polling by reputable polling sources, not from blog or chat room or leftist poll that wants to stir the pot in the Republican primary to the advantage of liberals. CNN polls are garbage and untrustworthy in my opinion.
Let's move on to some realities in the political trenches that Trump has yet to address and will most certainly have to be addressed in the near future.
It will take a candidate with ground forces in just about all 50 states to have a chance to win the Republican presidential nomination. To date Trump does not seem to have such a network in place. Of course there may be time, but time is just one element in putting together a national campaign. It takes a lot of political operatives with experience to accomplish a successful national campaign. It takes more than money to buy this kind of experience. It takes people who are closely aligned with Trump's political philosophy on all the issues, not just immigration. You can be assured that many of the top polling Republican candidates are already locking in the best of the best political operatives available for their campaigns.
A national ground game costs money and Trump has yet to spend a dime in this area.
Moving on, Trump has yet to buy any real advertising, which means television and television is costly, but considered more effective than any other communication medium. Of course Trump has managed to capture a ton of free television time as both left and right media are falling over each other to report on Trump's progress in the campaign. Kudos to Trump for getting something very valuable for nothing.
Of course the leftist MSM wants to actually promote Trump, since they believe he can easily be defeated in the general election, based upon his sexist and racist remarks and positions. The media on the right are enthralled with Trump's shoot from the hip, take no prisoners approach in his speeches, since it appeals to so many disenchanted voters on the political right. The rightist media is simply pandering to their constituent followers. The media on the right, like Fox, want to exploit Trump's phenomenon, because it jacks up their ratings, which means more in advertising revenue. That's just the way the two media groups work to raise revenue or raise their profile in the ratings world. Of course the leftist MSM is willing to take some losses in revenues in order to maintain their position at the liberal political table as the propaganda machine of the very liberal left. That's a badge on honor to them.
Both the right and left media want to influence the outcome of the primaries in both parties. It's in their own interests to do so.
One last thought. Despite Trump's contention that he is so rich that he can finance his own political campaign, there are those who know Trump who say he will not spend the kind of money necessary to wage a successful campaign to its conclusion. It's for the above reasons that I don't think that Trump will be in serious contention for the Republican nomination by the time of the Republican National Convention next summer in Cleveland.
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