Wednesday, December 9, 2015

Digging into the GOP presidential nomination.

By Rob Janicki

With various political polls coming out on an almost daily basis with GOP candidates rising and falling like the tide and changing positions more often than the flower power children of the 1960's changed positions in their great free love movement, what are we to make of all these poll numbers?  Probably a lot less at this particular time than supporters of most GOP candidates would want to admit to.

As soon as I bring up any historic data, I am reminded by political zealots in search of a new primary paradigm, that this is a whole new, never seen before, GOP primary process.  The claim strongly implying that historic similarities and parallels cannot be applied to this 2016 GOP campaign.

Obviously, there never has been a candidate like Donald Trump.  But, putting aside all of Trump's antics and foibles as a candidate for the moment, there are certain numbers that are almost immutable.

In polling, approximately 25% to 30% of Americans identify as Republicans.  Trump has been variously polling in the general range of 25% to 30% of those polled who claim to be Republicans.  That translates out to about 7% of the total electorate.  It's this number that raises serious questions about Trump's strength, or any other GOP candidate's strength, at this time in the GOP primary process.

One of the problems with the polls to date is that it looks at those who lean Republican or are registered Republican voters, rather than the holy grail of polling, those who are likely to vote.  This is no small detail in crunching the resulting numbers in all the polls to date.

Most of the major polling organizations agree that polls don't really begin to develop clear and accurate pictures of the political landscape until the last week to 10 days before each individual primary.

Let's assume for the moment that the polling for Iowa and New Hampshire remains constant until ballots are actually cast.  Currently the real contenders in numbers are roughly Trump, Cruz, and Rubio with Carson trailing and showing signs of actually losing valuable numbers. 

The real question to be answered is where these top three candidates will get additional votes to  build upon their current positions.  That's where the rubber meets the road.  We will undoubtedly see Cruz and Rubio skimming off voters from the lesser candidates.  But what about Trump?  Where will new voters come from that would migrate to Trump?  

Trump has undoubtedly secured the faithful in his flock of ardent supporters and they aren't going anywhere any time soon.  But, Trump has undeniably managed to alienate quite a few other candidate constituencies among Republican voters that he will need in order to increase and consolidate his position going into the first primaries and later into the GOP Convention in

Trump may well hold on to a good percentage of his voters in the early primaries, but I find it difficult to see where he will pick up the voters he will need going into the convention.  I just don't see it happening, but I do see both Cruz and Rubio picking up more voters over the course of the primaries as they close upon, if not overcome, Trump's voter numbers by the time of the convention in July 2016.

If the nomination goes to the convention, I simply do not see anyway for a resulting Trump nomination.  I see Cruz and Rubio peeling off the lesser candidate delegates, while Trump remains locked into a static state.  I say this because I do not see Trump making any headway whatsoever to capture any delegates from lesser candidates that Trump has already mercilessly attacked along the campaign trail.  Can anyone honestly say that they see Carson delegates eventually  lining up to support Trump after what the Donald has done to Dr. Carson?  Not remotely likely.

That thought leads to a disturbing further question.  Just recently a poll of Trump supporters indicated that 65% of them would support a Trump candidacy as an independent.  This would surely throw the general election to the most corrupt woman in American political history.  Is this something that anyone wants, other than Hillary and the radical liberal left?

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